This image released by Netflix shows Karla Sofa Gascn, left, and Zoe Saldaa in a scene from "Emilia Prez." (Netflix via AP)2025-02-12T21:22:32Z NEW YORK (AP) The inner-Vatican machinations of Conclave have nothing on this years Oscar race.Just as Edward Bergers film juggles various candidates for the papacy, the race for best picture at the Academy Awards has seen one favorite replaced by another, and then another.While some clarity has lately emerged, with a handful of big wins for Sean Bakers Anora, it seems likely to be a nail biter until a winner is declared at the March 2 Oscars, when white smoke unfurls from the Sistine Chapel, I mean the Dolby Theatre.As of now, Anora is the clear frontrunner thanks to wins with the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild both prizes with a long history of predicting Oscar winners. Where the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs fall will offer the last major clues.But unlike years like last year, when Oppenheimer was way ahead wire to wire, no lead in this years best picture race seems ironclad. So, with that in mind, here are the best picture nominees, ranked in order of least likely to win to most likely to win. Its telling that at least half of these films, with three weeks to go, still have a chance. 10. Nickel BoysIf this was a ranking of merit, RaMell Rosss movie would be first. Ross film, thrillingly and thoughtfully shot largely in first person, introduced a new filmic grammar to American movies. But Nickel Boys was seemingly on the cusp of getting a nomination, so we should just be glad its counted here among the best of the year. 9. Dune: Part TwoDenis Villeneuves first Frank Herbert adaptation garnered 10 nominations and won six. Part Two hasnt been the same awards force. Its up for five nominations and will probably walk home with one or two Oscars, possibly for visual effects and sound. People like Dune: Part Two but sequels tend to have a harder go of it at the Academy Awards. Blame it on the sandworms. 8. Im Still HereArguably no film has risen up the Oscar ranks more than Walter Salles portrait of political resistance under Brazils military dictatorship. The film, a box-office sensation in its native country, was once one of the many international underdogs vying for a place at the Academy Awards. It wont win best picture, but its a testament to the films appeal that it could upset Emilia Prez in best international film. Demi Moore in a scene from The Substance. (Mubi via AP) Demi Moore in a scene from The Substance. (Mubi via AP) Share Share Copy Link copied Email Facebook X Reddit LinkedIn Pinterest Flipboard Print Read More 7. The SubstanceCoralie Fargeats body-horror film has turned out to be much more of an Oscar contender than initially believed certainly by Universal, which financed the film but sold it to Mubi to distribute. Its up for five awards but its best chance comes in the best actress category where Demi Moore is the favorite. Mikey Madison (Anora) and Fernanda Torres (Im Still Here) could make that a close call, too, but Moore propelled by her popcorn actress narrative and the movies biting showbiz satire is the frontrunner. 6. Emilia PrezHow far can a former frontrunner fall? Jacques Audiards narco-musical leads all films with 13 nominations but the Netflix movie has been in freefall since its star, Karla Sofa Gascn, became ensnarled by a scandal over old tweets. Im not completely counting Emilia Prez out you dont get 13 nominations for nothing. But Emilia Prez, a divisive movie to begin with, is now in the business of salvaging its chances in other categories, like best supporting actress, where Zoe Saldaa could win. This image released by Universal Pictures shows Cynthia Erivo, left, and Ariana Grande in a scene from the film Wicked. (Universal Pictures via AP) This image released by Universal Pictures shows Cynthia Erivo, left, and Ariana Grande in a scene from the film Wicked. (Universal Pictures via AP) Share Share Copy Link copied Email Facebook X Reddit LinkedIn Pinterest Flipboard Print Read More 5. WickedNow were into the top contenders. Most likely, the winner is coming from one of these next five. Jon M. Chus Broadway adaptation might have the most moviegoers rooting for it to win, but its missing some key ingredients for pulling out best picture. Chu missed on a nomination for best director and the Wicked has mostly been out-musical-ed by Emilia Prez on the awards circuit. Still, Wicked has cornered the market on the role of Big Studio Movie contender. However it does, the film academy is going to make sure Wicked is front and center during the ceremony.4. ConclaveHere we have our Everyone Likes It contender. Bergers papal thriller, starring Ralph Fiennes as a cardinal tasked with leading a conclave, feels like the most universally respected nominee. In a year where votes are spread across a lot of films, that might be a quality that particularly considering the academys preferential ballot leaves Conclave driving the Oscar home in a popemobile. Whats the main knock against this happening, aside from the potential difficulty of renting a popemobile? Berger was passed over on a directing nomination, and Conclave hasnt yet won a major award. More than any other movie, it needs a victory at the BAFTAs. 3. A Complete UnknownJames Mangolds Bob Dylan movie is also widely liked and lacks any precursor win. But admiration for A Complete Unknown is widespread and it could, just as Conclave might, pull out an upset by rising high on a plethora of ballots. Unlike Conclave, Mangold was nominated for best director, though, and it has the benefit of being led by Hollywoods biggest young star, Timothe Chalamet. Hollywood likes to, in picking a best picture winner, say something about its future. Chalamets star power could be convincing enough. Plus Searchlight Pictures has previously steered quite a few best-picture winners (Nomadland, The Shape of Water). Mangolds movie has momentum, which, even if it doesnt lead to best picture, may propel Chalamet to best actor over Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. 2. The Brutalist This image released by A24 shows Adrien Brody, left, and Guy Pearce in a scene from The Brutalist. (Lol Crawley/A24 via AP) This image released by A24 shows Adrien Brody, left, and Guy Pearce in a scene from The Brutalist. (Lol Crawley/A24 via AP) Share Share Copy Link copied Email Facebook X Reddit LinkedIn Pinterest Flipboard Print Read More Until recently, Brady Corbets postwar epic might have been the top pick. The Brutalist has been an award-winner at Venice and the Golden Globes. Its up for 10 Oscars. Its roundly been hailed as visionary, hugely ambitious cinema all made, remarkably, with a budget under $10 million. Its also three and a half hours long. Not every Oscar voter, I assure you, is watching it all the way through. That, though, might not be a bad thing for a movie that falls off in the second half.1. Anora Mark Eydelshteyn, left, and Mikey Madison in a scene from Anora. (Neon via AP) Mark Eydelshteyn, left, and Mikey Madison in a scene from Anora. (Neon via AP) Share Share Copy Link copied Email Facebook X Reddit LinkedIn Pinterest Flipboard Print Read More Half a year ago, Anora was the odds-on pick to win best picture and now, after a topsy-turvy awards season, it is again. A trio of wins at the PGA Awards, the DGA Awards and Critics Choice has reestablished Anora as the movie to beat.If it wins at the SAG Awards, too, the race is probably over. Not everything with similar credentials has won before, though; 1917 had the same wins before being defeated by Parasite five years ago. Anora, however, also won the Palme dOr at Cannes, like Parasite did, so it should do well among international voters a crucial voting bloc in todays academy.Its also just really good. Anora comes from a widely respected filmmaker in Baker, a prominent defender of the theatrical release. And his movie, a sly and devastating twist on a Pretty Woman-like fable, is as connected to Hollywoods celebrated 70s as it is to its indie filmmaking present.___For more on this years Oscar race and show, including how to watch the nominees, visit https://apnews.com/hub/academy-awards JAKE COYLE Coyle has been a film critic and covered the movie industry for The Associated Press since 2013. 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