Were Too Close to the Debris
This story works best on ProPublicas website.Delta Airlines Flight 573 took off from San Juan, Puerto Rico, at 4:45 p.m. Eastern time on Jan. 16, 2025, and headed for Atlanta.At 5:49 p.m., air traffic controllers told pilots over the Caribbean that a SpaceX Starship rocket had exploded. All planes were ordered to avoid an area where the Federal Aviation Administration estimated debris would fall.The plane turned sharply south to get out of the debris zone.And it wasnt alone. ProPublica identified 20 other planes that appeared to make sudden turns to exit or avoid the danger zone in the minutes after the explosion.While none of the planes were damaged by the debris, such emergency maneuvering can be risky.The airspace remained closed for 86 minutes, during which time flight patterns show dozens of other planes likely had to change course making pilots and passengers unwitting participants in SpaceXs test of the most powerful rocket ever built.When SpaceX CEO Elon Musk chose a remote Texas outpost on the Gulf Coast to develop his companys ambitious Starship, he put the 400-foot rocket on a collision course with the commercial airline industry.Each time SpaceX did a test run of Starship and its booster, dubbed Super Heavy, the megarockets flight path would take it soaring over busy Caribbean airspace before it reached the relative safety of the open Atlantic Ocean. The company planned as many as five such launches a year as it perfected the craft, a version of which is supposed to one day land on the moon.The FAA, which also oversees commercial space launches, predicted the impact to the national airspace would be minor or minimal, akin to a weather event, the agencys 2022 approval shows. No airport would need to close and no airplane would be denied access for an extended period of time.But the reality has been far different. Last year, three of Starships five launches exploded at unexpected points on their flight paths, twice raining flaming debris over congested commercial airways and disrupting flights. And while no aircraft collided with rocket parts, pilots were forced to scramble for safety.A ProPublica investigation, based on agency documents, interviews with pilots and passengers, air traffic control recordings and photos and videos of the events, found that by authorizing SpaceX to test its experimental rocket over busy airspace, the FAA accepted the inherent risk that the rocket might put airplane passengers in danger.And once the rocket failed spectacularly and that risk became real, neither the FAA nor Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy sought to revoke or suspend Starships license to launch, a move that is permitted when necessary to protect the public health and safety. Instead, the FAA allowed SpaceX to test even more prototypes over the same airspace, adding stress to the already-taxed air traffic control system each time it launched.The first two Starship explosions last year forced the FAA to make real-time calls on where to clear airspace and for how long. Such emergency closures came with little or no warning, ProPublica found, forcing pilots to suddenly upend their flight plans and change course in heavily trafficked airspace to get out of the way of falling debris. In one case, a plane with 283 people aboard ran low on fuel, prompting its pilot to declare an emergency and cross a designated debris zone to reach an airport.The worlds largest pilots union told the FAA in October that such events call into question whether a suitable process is in place to respond to unexpected rocket mishaps.There is high potential for debris striking an aircraft resulting in devastating loss of the aircraft, flight crew, and passengers, wrote Steve Jangelis, a pilot and aviation safety chair.The FAA said in response to questions that it limits the number of aircraft exposed to the hazards, making the likelihood of a catastrophic event extremely improbable.Yet for the public and the press, gauging that danger has been difficult. In fact, nearly a year after last Januarys explosion, it remains unclear just how close Starships wreckage came to airplanes. SpaceX estimated where debris fell after each incident and reported that information to the federal government. But the company didnt respond to ProPublicas requests for that data, and the federal agencies that have seen it, including the FAA, havent released it. The agency told us that it was unaware of any other publicly available data on Starship debris.In public remarks, Musk downplayed the risk posed by Starship. To caption a video of flaming debris in January, he wrote, Entertainment is guaranteed! and, after the March explosion, he posted, Rockets are hard. The company has been more measured, saying it learns from mistakes, which help us improve Starships reliability.For airplanes traveling at high speeds, there is little margin for error. Research shows as little as 300 grams of debris or two-thirds of a pound could catastrophically destroy an aircraft, said Aaron Boley, a professor at the University of British Columbia who has studied the danger space objects pose to airplanes. Photographs of Starship pieces that washed up on beaches show items much bigger than that, including large, intact tanks.Debris washed up on a beach in Mexico following a SpaceX explosion. Courtesy of Jesus Elias Ibarra RodriguezIt doesnt actually take that much material to cause a major problem to an aircraft, Boley said.In response to growing alarm over the rockets repeated failures, the FAA has expanded prelaunch airspace closures and offered pilots more warning of potential trouble spots. The agency said it also required SpaceX to conduct investigations into the incidents and to implement numerous corrective actions to enhance public safety. An FAA spokesperson referred ProPublicas questions about what those corrective actions were to SpaceX, which did not respond to multiple requests for comment.Experts say the FAAs shifting approach telegraphs a disquieting truth about air safety as private companies increasingly push to use the skies as their laboratories: Regulators are learning as they go.During last years Starship launches, the FAA was under pressure to fulfill a dual mandate: to regulate and promote the commercial space industry while keeping the flying public safe, ProPublica found. In his October letter, Jangelis called the arrangement a direct conflict of interest.In an interview, Kelvin Coleman, who was head of FAAs commercial space office during the launches, said his office determined that the risk from the mishaps was within the acceptable limits of our regulations.But, he said, as more launches are starting to take place, I think we have to take a real hard look at the tools that we have in place and how do we better integrate space launch into the airspace.We Need to Protect the AirspaceOn Jan. 16, 2025, as SpaceX prepared to launch Starship 7 from Boca Chica, Texas, the government had to address the possibility the giant rocket would break up unexpectedly.Using debris modeling and simulations, the U.S. Space Force, the branch of the military that deals with the nations space interests, helped the FAA draw the contours of theoretical debris response areas no-fly zones that could be activated if Starship exploded.With those plans in place, Starship Flight 7 lifted off at 5:37 p.m. EST. About seven minutes later, it achieved a notable feat: Its reusable booster rocket separated, flipped and returned to Earth, where giant mechanical arms caught it as SpaceX employees cheered.But about 90 seconds later, as Starships upper stage continued to climb, SpaceX lost contact with it. The craft caught fire and exploded, far above Earths surface.A pilot on a flight from Miami to Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, recorded video of space debris visible from the cockpit while flying at 37,000 feet. Provided to ProPublicaAir traffic controls communications came alive with surprised pilots who saw the accident, some of whom took photos and shot videos of the flaming streaks in the sky:Pilot: I just got a major streak going for at least 60 miles, all these different colors. Just curious but it looked like it was coming towards us, but obviously because of the distance . Just letting you know.Controller: Can you, can you give an estimate on how far away it is?Another controller warned a different pilot of debris in the area:Controller: Due to a space vehicle mishap a rocket launch that basically exploded between our airspace and Miami Im going to give you holding instructions because there was debris in the area, so Im going to keep you away from it.Two FAA safety inspectors were in Boca Chica to watch the launch at SpaceXs mission control, said Coleman, who, for Flight 7, was on his laptop in Washington, D.C., receiving updates.As wreckage descended rapidly toward airplanes flight paths over the Caribbean, the FAA activated a no-fly zone based on the vehicles last known position and prelaunch calculations. Air traffic controllers warned pilots to avoid the area, which stretched hundreds of miles over a ribbon of ocean roughly from the Bahamas to just east of St. Martin, covering portions of populated islands, including all of Turks and Caicos. While the U.S. controls some airspace in the region, it relies on other countries to cooperate when it recommends a closure.The FAA also cordoned off a triangular zone south of Key West.When a pilot asked when planes would be able to proceed through the area, a controller replied:Controller: The only information I got is that the rocket exploded so we need to protect the airspace, and Miami and Domingo stopped taking aircraft.There were at least 11 planes in the closed airspace when Starship exploded, and flight tracking data shows they hurried to move out of the way, clearing the area within 15 minutes. Such maneuvers arent without risk. If many aircraft need to suddenly change their routing plans, Boley said, then it could cause additional stress on an already taxed air traffic control system, which can lead to errors.That wasnt the end of the disruption though. The FAA kept the debris response area, or DRA, active for another 71 minutes, leaving some flights in a holding pattern over the Caribbean. Several began running low on fuel and some informed air traffic controllers that they needed to land.We havent got enough fuel to wait, said one pilot for Iberia airlines who was en route from Madrid with 283 people on board.The controller warned him that if he proceeded across the closed airspace, it would be at his own risk:Controller: If youre going to pass through the DRA, you guysre going to need to declare an emergency. Thats what my supervisor if youre going to land at San Juan, you need to declare an emergency for fuel reasons, thats what my supervisor just told me.Pilot: In that case, we declare emergency. Mayday mayday mayday.The plane landed safely in San Juan, Puerto Rico.Iberia did not respond to requests for comment, but in statements to ProPublica, other airlines downplayed the launch fallout. Delta, for example, said the incident had minimal impact to our operation and no aircraft damage. The companys safety management system and our safety culture help us address potential issues to reinforce that air transportation remains the safest form of travel in the world, a spokesperson said.After the incident, some pilots registered concerns with the FAA, which was also considering a request from SpaceX to increase the number of annual Starship launches from five to 25.Last nights Space X rocket explosion, which caused the diversion of several flights operating over the Gulf of Mexico, was pretty eye opening and scary, wrote Steve Kriese in comments to the FAA, saying he was a captain for a major airline and often flew over the Gulf. I do not support the increase of rocket launches by Space X, until a thorough review can be conducted on the disaster that occurred last night, and safety measures can be put in place that keeps the flying public safe.Kriese could not be reached for comment.The Air Line Pilots Association urged the FAA to suspend Starship testing until the root cause of the failure could be investigated and corrected. A letter from the group, which represents more than 80,000 pilots flying for 43 airlines, said flight crews traveling in the Caribbean didnt know where planes might be at risk from rocket debris until after the explosion.By that time, its much too late for crews who are flying in the vicinity of the rocket operation, to be able to make a decision for the safe outcome of the flight, wrote Jangelis, the pilot and aviation safety chair for the group. The explosion, he said, raises additional concerns about whether the FAA is providing adequate separation of space operations from airline flights.In response, the FAA said it would review existing processes and determine whether additional measures can be taken to improve situational awareness for flight crews prior to launch.According to FAA documents, the explosion propelled Starship fragments across an area nearly the size of New Jersey. Debris landed on beaches and roadways in Turks and Caicos. It also damaged a car. No one was injured.Three months later, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which was evaluating potential impacts to marine life, sent the FAA a report with a map of where debris from an explosion could fall during future Starship failures. The estimate, which incorporated SpaceXs own data from the Starship 7 incident, depicted an area more than three times the size of the airspace closed by the FAA.In a statement, an FAA spokesperson said NOAAs map was intended to cover multiple potential operations, while the FAAs safety analysis is for a single actual launch. A NOAA spokesperson said that the map reflects the general area where mishaps could occur and is not directly comparable with the FAAs no-fly zones.Nevertheless Moriba Jah, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Texas, said the illustration suggested the no-fly zones the FAA activated may not fully capture how far and wide debris spreads after a rocket breakup. The current predictive science, he said, carries significant uncertainty.Debris from the Jan. 16, 2025, Starship rocket explosion left a trail of fire and smoke visible from Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Reuters/via Reuters TVAt an industry conference a few weeks after the January explosion, Shana Diez, a SpaceX executive, acknowledged the FAAs challenges in overseeing commercial launches.The biggest thing that we really would like to work with them on in the future is improving their real time awareness of where the launch vehicles are and where the launch vehicles debris could end up, she said.Were Too Close to the DebrisOn Feb. 26 of last year, with the investigation into Starship Flight 7 still open, the FAA cleared Flight 8 to proceed, saying it determined SpaceX met all safety, environmental and other licensing requirements.The action was allowed under a practice that began during the first Trump administration, known as expedited return-to-flight, that permitted commercial space companies to launch again even before the investigation into a prior problematic flight was complete, as long as safety systems were working properly.Coleman, who took a voluntary separation offer last year, said that before granting approval, the FAA confirmed that safety critical systems, such as the rockets ability to self-destruct if it went off course, worked as designed during Flight 7.By March 6, SpaceX was ready to launch again. This time the FAA gave pilots a heads-up an hour and 40 minutes before liftoff.In the event of a debris-generating space launch vehicle mishap, there is the potential for debris falling within an area, the advisory said, again listing coordinates for two zones in the Gulf and Caribbean.The FAA said a prelaunch safety analysis, which includes planning for potential debris, incorporates lessons learned from previous flights. The zone described in the agencys advisory for the Caribbean was wider and longer than the previous one, while the area over the Gulf was significantly expanded.Flight 8 launched at 6:30 p.m. EST and its booster returned to the launchpad as planned. But a little more than eight minutes into the flight, some of Starships engines cut out. The craft went into a spin and about 90 seconds later SpaceX lost touch with it and it exploded.SpaceXs eighth Starship test launched from a launchpad in Boca Chica, Texas, on March 6, 2025, before blowing up 90 miles above Earth. Joe Skipper/ReutersThe FAA activated the no-fly zones less than two minutes later, using the same coordinates it had released prelaunch.Even with the advance warning, data shows at least five planes were in the debris zones at the time of the explosion, and they all cleared the airspace in a matter of minutes.A pilot on one of those planes, Frontier Flight 081, told passengers they could see the rocket explosion out the right-side windows. Dane Siler and Mariah Davenport, who were heading home to the Midwest after vacationing in the Dominican Republic, lifted the window shade and saw debris blazing across the sky, with one spot brighter than the rest.It literally looked like the sun coming out, Siler told ProPublica. It was super bright.They and other passengers shot videos, marveling at what looked like fireworks, the couple said. The Starship fragments appeared to be higher than the plane, many miles off. But before long, the pilot announced Im sorry to report that we have to turn around because were too close to the debris, Siler said.Caption: Cellphone video from passengers aboard Frontier Flight 081 shows debris in the sky about a minute after the FAA alerted the flight crew to exit the debris zone on March 6, 2025. Flight data from OpenSky Network. Video courtesy of Dane Siler and Mariah Davenport.Frontier did not respond to requests for comment.The FAA lifted the restriction on planes flying through the debris zone about 30 minutes after Starship exploded, much sooner than it had in January. The agency said that the Space Force had notified the FAA that all debris was down approximately 30 minutes after the Starship Flight 8 anomaly.But in response to ProPublicas questions, the Space Force acknowledged that it did not track the debris in real time. Instead, it said computational modeling, along with other scientific measures, allowed the agency to predict and mitigate risks effectively. The FAA said the aircraft were not at risk during the aftermath of Flight 8.Experts told ProPublica that the science underlying such modeling is far from settled, and the governments ability to anticipate how debris will behave after an explosion like Starships is limited. Youre not going to find anybody whos going to be able to answer that question with any precision, said John Crassidis, an aerospace engineering professor at the University of Buffalo. At best, you have an educated guess. At worst, its just a potshot.Where pieces fall and how long they take to land depends on many factors, including atmospheric winds and the size, shape and type of material involved, experts said.During the breakup of Flight 7, the FAA kept airspace closed for roughly 86 minutes. However, Diez, the SpaceX executive, told attendees at the industry conference that, in fact, it had taken hours for all the debris to reach the ground. The FAA, SpaceX and Diez did not respond to follow-up questions about her remarks.Its unclear how accurate the FAAs debris projections were for the March explosion. The agency acknowledged that debris fell in the Bahamas, but it did not provide ProPublica the exact location, making it impossible to determine whether the wreckage landed where the FAA expected. While some of the countrys islands were within the boundaries of the designated debris zone, most were not. Calls and emails to Bahamas officials were not returned.The FAA said no injuries or serious property damage occurred.FAA Greenlights More LaunchesBy May, after months of Musks Department of Government Efficiency slashing spending and firing workers at federal agencies across Washington, the FAA granted SpaceXs request to exponentially increase the number of Starship launches from Texas.Starship is key to delivering greater access to space and enabling cost-effective delivery of cargo and people to the Moon and Mars, the FAA found. The agency said it will make sure parties involved are taking steps to ensure the safe, efficient, and equitable use of national airspace.The U.S. is in a race to beat China to the lunar surface a priority set by Trumps first administration and continued under President Joe Biden. Supporters say the moon can be mined for resources like water and rare earth metals, and can offer a place to test new technologies. It could also serve as a stepping stone for more distant destinations, enabling Musk to achieve his longstanding goal of bringing humans to Mars.Trump pledged last January that the U.S. will pursue our Manifest Destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.But with experimental launches like Starships, Jangelis said, the FAA should be as conservative as possible when managing the airspace below them.We expect the FAA to make sure our aircraft and our passengers stay safe, he said. There has to be a balance between the for-profit space business and the for-profit airlines and commerce.A More Conservative ApproachCrowds flocked to South Padre Island, Texas, to watch Starships ninth test launch on May 27. Gabriel V. Cardenas/ReutersIn mid-May, United Kingdom officials sent a letter to their U.S. counterparts, asking that SpaceX and the FAA change Starships flight path or take other precautions because they were worried about the safety of their Caribbean territories.The following day, the FAA announced in a news release that it had approved the next Starship launch, pending either the agencys closure of the investigation into Flight 8 or granting of a return to flight determination.A week later, with the investigation into Flight 8 still open, the agency said SpaceX had satisfactorily addressed the causes of the mishap. The FAA did not detail what those causes were at the time but said it would verify that the company implemented all necessary corrective actions.This time the FAA was more aggressive on air safety.The agency preventively closed an extensive swath of airspace extending 1,600 nautical miles from the launch site, across the Gulf of Mexico and through part of the Caribbean. The FAA said that 175 flights or more could be affected, and it advised Turks and Caicos Providenciales International Airport to close during the launch.The FAA Closed a Heavily Trafficked Air Corridor Prior to Flight 9Flight data from the day before Starship Flight 9s launch shows just how busy the area around the FAAs no-fly zone could be around the time of the launch.The FAA Closed a Heavily Trafficked Air Corridor Prior to Flight 9Flight data from the day before Starship Flight 9s launch shows just how busy the area around the FAAs no-fly zone could be around the time of the launch.Note: ProPublica connected gaps in some flight paths to create continuous lines. Source: OpenSky NetworkThe agency said the move was driven in part by an updated flight safety analysis and SpaceXs decision to reuse a previously launched Super Heavy booster something the company had never tried before. The agency also said it was in close contact and collaboration with the United Kingdom, Turks & Caicos Islands, Bahamas, Mexico, and Cuba.Coleman told ProPublica that the concerns of the Caribbean countries, along with Starships prior failures, helped convince the FAA to close more airspace ahead of Flight 9.On May 27, the craft lifted off at 7:36 p.m. EDT, an hour later than in March and two hours later than in January. The FAA said it required the launch window to be scheduled during non-peak transit periods.This mission, too, ended in failure.Starships Super Heavy booster blew up over the Gulf of Mexico, where it was supposed to have made whats called a hard splashdown.In response, the FAA again activated an emergency no-fly zone. Most aircraft had already been rerouted around the closed airspace, but the agency said it diverted one plane and put another in a holding pattern for 24 minutes. The FAA did not provide additional details on the flights.According to the agency, no debris fell outside the hazard area where the FAA had closed airspace. Pieces from the booster eventually washed up on Mexicos beaches.Starships upper stage reached the highest planned point in its flight path, but it went into a spin on the way down, blowing up over the Indian Ocean.The Path AheadA map released by the FAA shows potential no-fly zones planned for future Starship launches that would cross over a portion of Florida. Air hazard areas the AHAs on this map are paths that would be cleared of air traffic before launches. Federal Aviation AdministrationSpaceX launched Starship again in August and October. Unlike the prior flights, both went off without incident, and the company said it was turning its focus to the next generation of Starship to provide service to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond.But about a week later, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said he would open up SpaceXs multibillion-dollar contract for a crewed lunar lander to rival companies. SpaceX is an amazing company, he said on CNBC. The problem is, theyre behind.Musk pushed back, saying on X that SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. He insulted Duffy, calling him Sean Dummy and saying The person responsible for Americas space program cant have a 2 digit IQ.The Department of Transportation did not respond to a request for comment or make Duffy available.In a web post on Oct. 30, SpaceX said it was proposing a simplified mission architecture and concept of operations that would result in a faster return to the Moon while simultaneously improving crew safety.SpaceX is now seeking FAA approval to add new trajectories as Starship strives to reach orbit. Under the plan, the rocket would fly over land in Florida and Mexico, as well as the airspace of Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, likely disrupting hundreds of flights.In its letter, the pilots union told the FAA that testing Starship over a densely populated area should not be allowed (given the dubious failure record) until the craft becomes more reliable. The planned air closures could prove crippling for the Central Florida aviation network, it added.Still, SpaceX is undeterred.Diez, the company executive, said on X in October, We are putting in the work to make 2026 an epic year for Starship.How We Analyzed Data on Planes at RiskWe analyzed flight tracking data to determine how many planes flew in or near areas at risk from falling debris during recent SpaceX Starship explosions.The bulk of the flight tracking data we used came from the OpenSky Network, a nonprofit that collects data from a technology called Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast. These systems communicate a planes position to air traffic controllers and other planes. The signals can be tracked by ground sensors. OpenSky and similar services, such as ADS-B Exchange, have crowdsourced a network of sensors that report real-time information, including a planes model, flight number, location, heading and altitude. Most paths came from OpenSkys database. They were formed by connecting individual trace points to create a line. Technical issues, especially gaps between sensors, can create inconsistent flight traces. In cases where there are gaps, the flight path depicts the plane traveling in a straight line between the available points. Missing maneuvers were supplemented with data from ADS-B Exchange, which we also used for fact-checking.We compared the planes locations and maneuvers to the FAAs debris zone, which was based on coordinates it released to air traffic personnel. We identified planes inside the zone during or just after the explosion in January, as well as others that appeared to take significant action to avoid the area. Planes that had just crossed the zone or flew in parallel to it were not included. This analysis may not be comprehensive of all evasive maneuvers or disruptions caused by the explosions.We also analyzed historical data for the same day of the week (Thursday) and time period when the January debris zone was active to determine the number of planes that typically pass through the area.The post Were Too Close to the Debris appeared first on ProPublica.
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